by Leonard Achan RN, MA, ANP

Have you ever needed a registered nurse (RN) before? If you have ever been in the hospital or even just sick at home in the comfort of your own bed, it goes without saying that having a great nurse at your bedside could make a world of a difference. Over the last several years, you may have noticed that not all ID badges say RN (some say LPN or Nurses aide) and that the words ‘nursing shortage’ continue to come up in everyday conversations and on regular news reports. You may have even heard from friends or family that they are considering ‘going to nursing school’.

I have noticed that there has been an increase in the number of friends, students and family who are applying to nursing schools and working on prerequisites to get into nursing programs. So is this just a result of great marketing from nursing schools throughout America ? I don’t think so.

According to the Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. had a shortage of approximately 168,000 Registered Nurses in 2003 rising to 406,000 by 2010. At that time, it meant that the current supply would have had to increase by 9 percent to meet estimated demands. This research indicates that within the next decade, the national shortage would increase to greater than one million RN’s which would suggest that only 64 percent of the projected demand would be met.

The supply and demand projections most likely bound the range of the actual number of FTE (Full Time Equivalent) RN’s who will be employed over the projection horizon. As the nursing shortage becomes more severe, market and political forces will create pressures that will increase supply, decrease demand, or both..

As outlined below, the projected supply and demand of RN’s paint an obvious picture. State-level shortages will vary substantially over time and across many areas. The state by state shortages are something we will explore in an article at a later date but there is valuable information on the Department of Health and Human Services site which can help you predict what states will get hit the worse. Understanding the trends can be very valuable as market forces, political pressure, grants and other incentives attempt to balance supply and demand.

So what do you think ? Do nurses play a crucial role in prevention, wellness and overall health ? What would a nursing shortage mean for you ? Take a look at the graph below and tell us what you think.

Projected U.S. FTE RN Supply, Demand, and Shortages